Mercedes has to find a new driver for 2025. With Lewis Hamilton departing for Ferrari, the German marque now has to find someone to fill his shoes. They are not short of options, so let’s look at the possible candidates and rank them by how likely it is that they’re taking over from Hamilton.
Oscar Piastri
Okay, this one is more of a wildcard than an actual candidate. Obviously, Oscar Piastri has a contract with McLaren up to 2026. The young Australian has done an incredible job to showcase his talent and level headedness, and has been rewarded with a long term contract at McLaren.
Any driver would be stupid to break off such a contract. But this is Oscar Piastri we’re talking about. The man who started one of the biggest shitstorms in modern Formula 1 with his by now iconic tweet: “I understand that, without my agreement, Alpine F1 have put out a press release late this afternoon that I am driving for them next year. This is wrong and I have not signed a contract with Alpine for 2023. I will not be driving for Alpine next year.”
If Mercedes comes with an interesting offer, it might just convince Piastri to do a sequel to this tweet and see what he can do in a Mercedes car.
Is it going to happen? No. Would it be entertaining? Absolutely.
Rating: 2/10. Super unlikely, but it would be very spicy.
Valtteri Bottas
Believe it or not, Mercedes has only had five drivers since they took over from Brawn in 2010. Those five drivers were Michael Schumacher, Nico Rosberg, Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, and… Valtteri Bottas.
Bottas has openly spoken about how bad the time at Mercedes was for his mental health. But that was a different situation. Back then, he was competing with Lewis Hamilton. Now, he will be basically starting fresh against a teammate that isn’t a world champion.
But I don’t think it will happen. Bottas seems to be on the brink of retirement. He is very much in his ‘Kimi Raikkonen at Alfa Romeo’ era. He will probably do better at Mercedes than he is currently doing at Sauber, but he is also lacking that drive and motivation that Mercedes needs right now.
Rating: 3/10. He may have the past experience, but isn’t the man for the future.
Fred Vesti
If anyone is unsure of the driving capabilities of Fred Vesti, I encourage them to watch the Formula 2 season finale at Abu Dhabi last year. It was an all or nothing scenario for Vesti to win the title, and he fought like a lion. After getting a difficult start in the sprintrace, he had to make up a sizable deficit to race leader Enzo Fittipaldi. But guess what? He did just that, going two tenths per lap faster than Fittipaldi and eventually winning with a 4 second lead. In the feature race he had to start from 9th and actively fought with his championship rival Theo Pourchaire. Despite clawing his way up to third, it wasn’t enough. Vesti finished the season in second place, a mere 11 points behind Pourchaire.
That stirring drive wasn’t enough to secure a Formula 1 seat in 2024 though. Vesti - who is part of the Mercedes Driver Academy - is currently sitting on the sidelines as test and reserve driver for Mercedes. When I talked to Vesti last year, he told me he’d like to keep racing so that he can showcase his talent for 2025. With an opening at Mercedes that year, they’d be stupid not to consider him.
But like so many other young drivers, Vesti will have to find a way to properly prepare himself before going to a major team like that. If a seat opens at Williams or a different team lower on the rankings, then that might be a better chance for him to develop.
Rating: 4/10. Solid driver with links to Mercedes, but it’s probably too soon for him.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
The young, Italian, generational talent from the Mercedes Driver Academy. Andrea Kimi Antonelli has a lot of hype around him, and for good reason. The 17 year old won six out of the past seven championships he competed in, even though for most of those he missed several rounds. This year he’s skipping Formula 3 and going straight into Formula 2. He has all the signs of a future world champion, but we all know what that kind of pressure can do to a driver.
Jumping straight into a top tier car like a Mercedes has long been seen as a bad move. That’s why top teams usually put their young talents at lesser teams, like AlphaTauri, Sauber or Williams. But with the seat now available, it might be a huge missed opportunity if Mercedes doesn’t give Kimi Antonelli his chance.
That of course all depends on how good the Italian does in F2 this year. There’s a decent chance that he needs two years to really find his footing in the championship: it’s rare for someone to win F2 in their first attempt. And Logan Sargeant was seen as a very promising driver as well, but was brought too quickly into F1 to really succeed. So whether or not Kimi Antonelli is ready for the step up, is something we’ll have to see this year.
Rating: a provisional 5/10. Probably needs some more time, but can blow us all away.
Mick Schumacher
Mick Schumacher was a standard part of the Mercedes pitbox last season. As reserve driver, he was always present to jump in whenever needed. As Toto Wolff stared with a stern look at the screens, Mick was always there to look over his shoulder with what almost seemed like an attempt to mimic that same stern look. The Obi Wan to Toto’s Qui Gon Jin. The Robin to Toto’s Batman. The Watson to Toto’s Sherlock.
But it never got any further than looking along. Toto has attempted to get Schumacher in as Sargeant’s replacement at Williams, but without success. This year Schumacher is driving in Alpine’s WEC programme, leaving him even further from the F1 paddock. It’s hard to say how good Mick really is. He is an F2 champion, but he also languished at Haas, though in all fairness he did only have one season there when the car wasn’t absolute garbage. He destroyed Mazepin but got massively outclassed by Magnussen. It’s a give and take, but I doubt Mercedes is willing to roll that dice.
Rating: 5/10. He has the links, but there are better options available.
Daniel Ricciardo
Daniel Ricciardo is obviously tied to Red Bull right now. Him being at AlphaTauri isn’t because he enjoys driving at the rear so much. In fact, he literally said that he doesn’t want to keep driving in F1 just to be driving, he wants to be back at the front of the grid and challenge for wins again. You’re not going to do that at AlphaTauri, you need to be in Red Bull. And that is obviously his goal. He said so many, many times.
But Ricciardo is also not afraid to ditch a team when he thinks a better opportunity is available. He did so when he left Red Bull for Renault back in 2018. He did so again when he left Renault for McLaren in 2020. And the link to Mercedes is also there: before signing on as third driver for Red Bull and AlphaTauri in 2023, Ricciardo was in active talks with Toto Wolff for a similar role at Mercedes.
It’s hard to say where Ricciardo currently stands in terms of driving capabilities. His stint at McLaren was disappointing to say the least, and since he only had five races at AlphaTauri it’s hard to say if he’s gotten any better. His battle with Carlos Sainz in Brazil suggests the speed is still there, but that’s a one-off example. He’s had plenty of moments like that at McLaren as well. So while Ricciardo will be looking for the best opportunity for himself, you have to wonder if Mercedes is still interested in him.
Rating: 5/10. Could be something there, but it’s not that likely.
Esteban Ocon
While it seems very natural that Esteban Ocon drives at Alpine, he is reportedly looking for other options. Alpine has been aggressively average the last few years and it doesn’t seem like that is going to change anytime soon. With their management in disarray and their car in a state of ‘meh’, it might be smart for Ocon to look at a different team.
The link to Mercedes is there. Ocon is reportedly still being managed by the people at Mercedes, just like he was before he moved to Alpine. That could give him an easy way in. Would it be the best choice for Mercedes? Probably not, given that half the grid is available to them. But Ocon is a decent enough driver - and a race winner at that. He managed to keep up with Alonso moderately well. He might not be the kind of driver to advance a team, but he can definitely be the kind of driver to keep a team near the top.
Rating: 6.5/10. He has the links and might be the correct right-hand man for Russell.
Fernando Alonso
What to do when you lose a world champion driver? Replace him with another world champion!
It worked for Lawrence Stroll when he brought Fernando Alonso in to replace Sebastian Vettel at Aston Martin. Alonso scored a whopping eight podiums last year and is more than eager to continue that form. At Aston Martin, he knows that he’ll always be second to Lance Stroll when it comes down to it. But at Mercedes, that might be different.
We know that Alonso has a habit of changing teams as soon as he feels that things aren’t moving quickly enough. We also know that he has a great relationship with George Russell. And we know that he still has that skill and talent to pedal a car around. He may be getting pretty old, but he still could take the fight to Hamilton and Perez last year. In terms of skill, it wouldn’t be a downgrade for Mercedes, though you have to wonder how many years he still has in him.
Maybe he could stay there until one of their junior talents can take over? Let’s ask Alpine how well that worked out for them.
Rating: 8/10. It would be a very Alonso thing to do and would help with Mercedes’ collection of world champions in their ranks.
Carlos Sainz
Hamilton going to Ferrari means that someone else has to leave there, and that someone is none other than Carlos Sainz. The Spaniard has had an incredible few years at Ferrari, with him last year being the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race. He did so in incredible fashion, coming up with a strategy so good that it confused the Ferrari pitwall.
I have no doubt that Sainz’ people are currently in active communications with Mercedes to orchestrate a clean swap. Mercedes and Ferrari are pretty evenly matched at the moment, so it wouldn’t really be a downgrade for Sainz. Unless he can somehow land a seat at Red Bull as replacement for Pérez, then this is really the best option available to him. And Mercedes would undoubtedly be willing to take him on, as Sainz has more than proven himself as a driver. He may have only won two races, but behind that number hides a great tactical driver that can help get Mercedes out of their current slump.
Rating: 8/10. Would be a win-win situation for both parties.
Alexander Albon
Without a doubt the best candidate in my mind. Albon has risen like a phoenix from the ashes of his abysmal stint at Red Bull. A stint that many - myself included - thought would mean the end of his career. But he clawed back, rebranded himself at Williams, and did stuff in that Williams last year that should not be humanly possible in that car. I mean, he held off Russell in multiple races for crying out loud.
Albon and Russell get along incredibly well, as they have been friends since their days in F2. He’s still young enough that he can help Mercedes build and grow for several years, including during the massive reset button that will be the 2026 engine. And he clearly has bucket loads of talent. While Albon currently seems like he is willing to help Williams make those leaps forward, he will also want to progress in his own career.
Rating: 10/10. A perfect candidate for Mercedes, especially as a teammate to Russell.