I can almost hear you thinking: “Are you really going to do this? You’ve only had your own blog for less than a week, are you already willing to risk your credibility like this?”
Well yes, yes I am.
The 2024 Formula 1 season is about to kick off. An exciting time for F1 fans, as we’re finally able to see our favorite teams and drivers go out on the track again and battle for who will be second behind Max Verstappen (spoiler alert). And since it’s fun to make predictions, and even more fun to see people be wrong in their predictions, I figured I’d do some guesses about what this season will look like. I won’t be making any concrete predictions about where each driver or team will finish, but instead I’ll be making a bit of a season summary. So with that out of the way…
1: Haas will be last
Okay, this one is a freebie. It’s not even a prediction anymore, it’s more a guarantee. Even Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu said he would be surprised if this wasn’t the case. With their sky high ambitions of “8th at best”, there’s absolutely zero chance that Haas will be anything but last.
2: Mercedes will take a step back
Haas is not the only team that will disappoint, as Mercedes will most likely also take a step back. Lewis Hamilton signing a new contract with Ferrari after two days of driving the new Mercedes car in the simulator should probably tell us more than enough. Mercedes is not going to be able to challenge for wins this year and should be lucky if they get on the podium.
In their newfound position, they will be battling for the most part with Aston Martin, because…
3: McLaren is battling with Ferrari for second place
It’s easy to say this now, as the testing days are already over. But everyone seems to agree that Ferrari is the best of the rest and McLaren is solid in the front of the pack as well. Both those teams showed an incredibly strong form in the second half of the 2023 season, and they’ll probably continue that this year. With some luck, they might even win a race or two.
And that’s why I’m tagging an extra prediction onto this one: both of the McLaren drivers will see their first race win this year. Piastri was already able to win the sprintrace in Qatar and Norris kept relatively close to Verstappen in a couple of races. If McLaren can sustain that form, they will be in a good position to snatch a win from Verstappen here and there.
4: Alpine, Williams and Racing Bulls will battle in the midfield
Three predictions in one, so let’s start with Alpine. The French team has been aggressively French the past few months, starting with half their leadership being sent to the guillotine last summer. Since then, Alpine has been a rudderless ship and has been thoroughly unimpressive. I don’t see any reason why that will change this year, with rumors from the paddock saying that even the drivers are unhappy with what they experienced during testing.
The only difference with last year, is that this time they won’t be stuck in the midfield by themselves. Because while I think Alpine is stuck in place, I do predict that two other teams will take a step forward. Williams will solidify their position in the midfield this year, with the influence of James Vowles becoming more visible and their investments in infrastructure paying off more and more. But perhaps more importantly: I predict that Logan Sargeant will start closing the gap to Alex Albon. They won’t be level, not in the slightest. Albon will still be miles ahead. But a couple less miles than last year. Sergeant will help bring in the points this year, meaning Williams will become a more serious challenger for Alpine.
They won’t be the only ones to take a step forward. Racing Bulls was already improving massively last year (oh the glorious sight of Yuki Tsunoda overtaking Hamilton on pure pace) and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t continue. With them being closer to Red Bull operationally, they’ll take a giant leap forward compared to the beginning of 2023 and will join Williams and Alpine in the midfield.
5: Daniel Ricciardo will take over from Sergio Perez mid-season
It’s no secret that Checo is on thin ice. He had a very disappointing season last year, even though it’s masked by him ultimately getting second in the championship. But that was largely helped by there not being a real constant challenger for that second place. With Ferrari and McLaren consistently being closer to Red Bull, Checo will come under more pressure and see himself fall in the ranking behind Norris and Leclerc.
He'll probably have a decent start, maybe even with a win. But this form will then drop off quickly and by the summer break, Red Bull will have run out of patience. As much as I'd love to see someone like Sainz or Albon take that second seat next year, it's not in Red Bull's nature to wait that long. They've been setting Ricciardo up for that - and they've been setting Liam Lawson up for that Racing Bulls seat.
So by the summer break, Ricciardo will once again don the navy blue of Red Bull, and Checo will leave the sport in what will be a hugely disappointing ending to what so far had been a very impressive career. A real shame.
6: Ben Sulayem will resign by the end of the season
Something off-track then. The FIA and Formula 1 currently get along about as well as Johnny Depp and Amber Heard. F1 seems to put the blame for that mostly on FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem. As this relationship deteriorates further, I think that Ben Sulayem will not see the end of the season in office.
I don’t necessarily think he should go. As far as I can tell, he seems to want F1 to actually innovate instead of just squeeze as much money out of it as possible. He’s been batting for Andretti, he’s advocated for historical tracks to be preserved, and as far as I can tell he hasn’t done anything offensive to other race categories in his position as FIA president. But the FIA has also done some really weird things in the latter half of the 2023 season. The investigation into the Wolff family, reopening an investigation into Hamilton’s behavior in Qatar even though he had already been punished, just to name a few. Reportedly, it’s also a mess internally, with several high ranking members leaving in the past few months.
Ben Sulayem leaving will probably mean that he gets replaced by a yes man for Liberty Media and F1, and I think that’s a net loss for the sport as a whole. But the Emirati’s position seems to be more and more untenable every year.
7: Drivers’ Champion: Max Verstappen
The title fight will most likely only last about 15 seconds, which I’m guessing is also the lead by which Verstappen will win the first race. The Dutchman had been completely unleashed in 2023 and shows no sign of stopping. If Red Bull can deliver a dominant car again, then it’s very likely that he will once again not only dominate the driver’s championship, but maybe also score enough points to win the constructors’ championship by himself again. Which means that…
8: Constructors’ Champion: Red Bull
As much as I’d like to see some other teams challenge them for the win, I don’t think it will happen. It may not be the most exciting prediction, but I think Red Bull will once again snatch both championships. That being said though, we will see the downside of the second driver not pulling his weight this year, and McLaren and Ferrari will be able to approach a bit more. With consistent point scoring from both drivers in those teams, they will be able to get closer to Red Bull than last year. But ultimately, it won’t be enough.
Max verstappen won 19 out of the 22 races in 2023.
9: Race winners
- Max Verstappen
- Sergio Perez
- Daniel Ricciardo
- Lando Norris
- Charles Leclerc
- Oscar Piastri