Well, we expected some silly season drama, but didn’t exactly see this coming now did we?
Lewis Hamilton is going to Ferrari in 2025, where he will be paired up with Charles Leclerc. That means that Mercedes will have to find a replacement for their star driver that they have built their team around for the past decade.
But the timing of this news puts Mercedes in a very awkward position.
You see, right now, before the first race of the year, every car is a bit of a Schrödinger’s Cat situation. They can all be great or terrible and nobody really knows how good the car will be. Unless you’re Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu of course: at Haas’ car launch, Komatsu stated for the second time in less than a month that Haas will be terrible this season and most likely will end last. We can also pretty confidently say that Red Bull will most likely have the best car again. But everything else is a big question mark.
And that’s where the trouble lies for Mercedes. A seat with them is something that is very coveted, at least, based on last year’s results. So right now, they can probably sign whoever they want because it will be an upgrade for anyone. Fernando Alonso, Esteban Ocon, Alexander Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, they all drove in cars that were for the most part worse than the Mercedes. For them, it will be a step up if they can get that seat, and therefore they will probably be very excited to join.
But Mercedes also has a driver programme of their own. They have Fred Vesti standing on the sidelines, doing test and simulator work for the team this year. They have Andrea Kimi Antonelli in Formula 2, one of the most highly rated drivers in the junior series right now. The guy won six out of the past seven championships he competed in. So it could also be smart for Mercedes to take this year as a prep year. See what Kimi Antonelli can do in F2. Prepare Vesti for that Mercedes seat. Make sure that both of them are ready for their step up to Formula 1 and maybe put one of them in that seat that Hamilton now vacates.
The dilemma
So what is Mercedes to do? If they wait for the first race, they risk lifting the lid of that box and show that the cat has been dead all along. Imagine if Aston Martin or McLaren leapfrogged Mercedes, or if Williams took that step forward while Mercedes has been standing still. If Hamilton and Russell are suddenly not fighting for the wins, but are battling in the midfield with Alpine and Williams, then that Mercedes seat is suddenly not such a coveted step up anymore. So it might be smart for them to lock down somebody like Albon before the season starts to make sure they don’t lose him to a different team.
But what if the cat is alive? If the car is suddenly better and can challenge Red Bull, then Mercedes is in a much better position to negotiate. They might be able to snatch up Alonso or convince Piastri to break his contract with McLaren. If they can promise a winning car, then everybody will be flocking to them again to beg for that seat. But Mercedes will have to be quick, because we’ve seen from Norris, Leclerc and Hamilton that the contract negotiations are already in full swing. As Will Buxton put it: at this rate, silly season will be over before the first race starts.
But that speed will come at a price as well. Because if they lock down Albon or Alonso now to make sure that those drivers don’t sign a new deal with a different team, then they risk having to stand an entire season by as Kimi Antonelli absolutely dominates F2. Imagine how bad they’ll look if Kimi Antonelli lives up to the hype, obliterates anything in his path in Formula 2, only to have to then tell him that they can’t give him a seat in Formula 1. I think the Piastri saga is way too fresh in everyone’s memory for Mercedes to want and risk that.
So what are they to do? Speed or caution? Lift the lid, or live in limbo? Is the cat dead or alive? Whatever the case, the way silly season is currently going, the choice may soon be taken out of their hands.