I don’t enjoy writing articles like these, because I do really like Checo as a driver and as a person. But it has to be said: Sergio Perez is not the person who can help Red Bull win the title right now.
It was announced today that Perez will stay with Red Bull for two more years, until the end of 2026. The press release had all the clichés that you’d expect from these announcements: “I’m delighted to stay with the team”, “I want to thank everyone for having faith in me”, “there’s a great challenge ahead”, etcetera etcetera.
But there was one quote by Christian Horner in it that drew my attention: “The past few races have been tough, but we are confident in Checo and look forward to his return to proven form and performance.”
That means even Horner can see what’s going on and is aware of the danger that’s looming for the team.
A strong start doesn't mean a strong season
Yes, it is true that Checo had a strong start to 2024, with four podiums in the first five races. But it’s important to remember that he had a strong start to 2023 too: two podiums and two victories in the first five races. And what happened after that? A string of terrible qualifyings, with only 9 Q3 appearances in the rest of the season, an average finishing position of 5.3 while his teammate was winning every single race, and three DNF’s completely due to his own fault.
And now in 2024 it’s starting to look very similar already. He didn’t pick up the win when Verstappen DNF’ed in Australia. He qualified poorly in Imola and Monaco where it’s very difficult to overtake. He has lost second in the standings to Charles Leclerc and currently sits in fifth place, behind Norris and Sainz. In fact, he is the only driver in the top five right now to not have won a race this season. And may I remind you of the start of the Miami Grand Prix, where he almost knocked out Verstappen in the first corner of the first lap?
Last year, the drop in form was embarrassing. This year, it’s dangerous. Verstappen was so dominant in 2023 that he won the constructors title by himself, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case this year. The Ferrari drivers have finished in the top 5 at every race this year (except for Bearman’s unexpected substitute turn in Saudi Arabia) and McLaren has had both cars in the points at all but one race. With those two teams hot on the heels of Red Bull, the Austrians need someone to back Verstappen up when it comes down to it. And the truth is: the moment Ferrari and McLaren started applying pressure was also the moment Perez started to fade away.
There’s another thing that makes this even worse. There will be a new set of regulations in 2026, which is where all the energy of the teams will be focused on for the next eighteen months. That means 2025 will probably be run with pretty much the same cars as this year. So Red Bull probably won’t have any serious advantage in 2025 either and really needs both drivers to pull their weight. The harsh reality is: Perez is just not doing that right now.
What's the point of keeping Checo on?
If an outsider like me can see that, then you can be sure that Horner can see it too. He also knows that Carlos Sainz is having the best season of his career and will be a free agent next year. He also knows that Yuki Tsunoda is performing much better than his car should allow and could be put into that second Red Bull seat at any moment. So then why still go for Perez?
Two options. Either he and the rest of the Red Bull hierarchy truly believe that last year was an outlier and - as he said in the press release - that Checo can return to the form he showed before. Or… it’s about money. It’s unclear what Checo’s exact commercial value is, but there have been many reports that he is the leading force behind much of Red Bull’s commercial success in Latin America and the Indian subcontinent. Those are two massive markets. But if that’s the main reason, then you have to ask what your purpose as a team in a sporting competition is. Is it to win titles? Or is it to bring in money?
Maybe the sisterteam Visa Cash App RB F1 Team has some insight in that.