The next domino in F1’s silly season has fallen. Esteban Ocon will leave Alpine at the end of this season, having driven there for five years and winning the team’s only race in that entire period. But his time there was also marked by inconsistency and struggles with his two teammates.
There was a time when Alpine was betting on Ocon to be the future of the team. In 2021, after just a season and a half with the French team - and notably before his beautiful victory at the Hungarian Grand Prix - he signed a contract extension with Alpine for three more years, running until the end of 2024. At that time, it was one of the longest running contracts in F1, only behind Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.
The problem is that that decision was made by then CEO Laurent Rossi. He was Ocon’s biggest supporter and considered him the golden boy. French driver at a French team, appointed by a French CEO and a French team principal. It’s easy to see why they wanted to lock him down. But Rossi is gone now and the new management seems eager to erase most of what he did. And sadly for Ocon, it seems he is part of that clean sweep as well.
The timing is of course noteworthy, but probably a complete coincidence. Ocon came under scrutiny from fans, pundits, and surprisingly his own team principal Bruno Famin after he crashed with teammate Pierre Gasly last week in Monaco. Although the criticism towards Ocon took on a bit of an unfair form, it was of course not a great sign that his own team principal so publicly slammed him for the crash. However, decisions like this are not made based on one race. You can be sure that Ocon and Alpine had been holding talks about his contract for the entirety of the season and this announcement was probably going to happen anyway around this time.
In fact, I’m guessing that the crash in Monaco was a direct consequence of these talks. Ocon probably knew that he was running out of time at Alpine and tried to make one final impression by making a daring overtake on the circuit infamous for being difficult to overtake on. And hey, if he had stuck the landing, who knows? Maybe he would have proven himself to be the driver Alpine needed and they’d have waited a bit longer before canning him. But he didn’t, of course. He instead crashed into his teammate. That clearly didn’t do him any favors.
It even led to speculation of him being sidelined in the next race, the Canadian Grand Prix. That specific rumor was debunked by Ocon himself a few days ago, but it does go to show that there was already a serious crack in the relationship between the team and the French driver.
2021 Hungary 🥇
— BWT Alpine F1 Team (@AlpineF1Team) June 3, 2024
2020 Sakhir 🥈
2023 Monaco 🥉
Here’s to continuing to push for the remainder of the season 💪
Merci pour tout, Esteban 💙 pic.twitter.com/Xz28278DUu
So what’s next?
Alpine said they will announce their new line-up “in due course”, which can mean anything from next week to three days before the 2025 season start. However, I’m pretty sure we can already guess what it will be. With Ocon out, there’s very little reason for Gasly to go too. He can of course decide for himself that he has no faith in Alpine, and I wouldn’t blame him. On the other hand, he can be pretty sure that he will be team leader now with Ocon out, so he will probably stick around. Alpine isn’t doing great at the moment, but I think they’re pretty much on par with all his other options (Haas, Williams), so there’s no real reason for him to leave. I would be very surprised if Ocon’s replacement is anyone other than Jack Doohan, the Australian who has been Alpine’s reserve driver ever since Oscar Piastri left that role in 2022. Doohan has been putting in the miles as their development driver and has been a staple in that team for two years now. Plus there doesn’t seem any real other candidate eager to jump into that car. So calling it now: Alpine’s 2025 line-up will be Gasly and Doohan.
As for Ocon… well, it seems increasingly likely that he just might be out of F1 again. He has proven himself fast and capable of podiums and wins, but he’s also proven himself to be inconsistent and sometimes erratic. That’s not a great sales pitch to most of the teams. There is however a good chance that he might get another lease on life. You see, Ocon is actually still being managed by Mercedes, just like he was in 2019 when he got kicked out of F1 the first time. That connection might land him a spot at another team, just like it did in 2020. The Mercedes seat left open by Lewis Hamilton is maybe a bit of a stretch, but it could be a big enough plus to get him a seat at Williams or Haas. Ocon said he’d confirm his future soon, so we probably won’t have to wait long for that news. In the meantime, Ocon will still continue to race for the team for the rest of the season, barring a few FP1 sessions which will most likely go to Doohan.