Max Verstappen is on track to secure his fourth consecutive championship in Formula 1. The Dutchman won the first two races of the season by a landslide and has been consistently strong throughout the first half of the year. How soon can the Red Bull driver secure the title in 2024?
For this calculation, we will be looking at two different metrics: what’s the first possible moment he can mathematically secure the title, and what is the first moment where a good competitor cannot overtake him anymore. All calculations are based on the current points total. Right now, that means after the Dutch Grand Prix.
Method 1: the first mathematical moment that Verstappen can win the title
In this first method, we’re looking at the first moment that Verstappen could possibly win the title, mathematically speaking. That would require Verstappen to get maximum results in every race, so that’s 26 points in a regular Grand Prix and 8 points in a sprintrace. His closest competitor, currently Lando Norris, would then have to get 0 points in every race. Then, for the second part of the season, we flip it on its head: what if Verstappen gets 0 points every race and Norris the maximum.
Essentially, we’re trying to answer the question: after which race can Verstappen walk away from F1 and still win the title?
The answer to that one is currently: after the Singapore Grand Prix. Even if Verstappen gets not a single point after that and Norris gets maximum points every race, it would still be impossible to overtake Verstappen. It also means that it would be impossible for Verstappen to secure the title any sooner than that. The Singapore Grand Prix is round 18 of the season, which means that Verstappen could theoretically sit out the remaining six races after that and still get the title.
Method 2: when can a good competitor no longer overtake Verstappen?
Method 2 assumes that Verstappen actually gets a bit of a challenge from someone. This calculation still assumes that Verstappen gets maximum points each race, but also that the second placed driver gets the most he can get. So while Verstappen gets the win with the fastest lap every time, Norris would finish second every time.That calculation tells us when it’s impossible to overtake Verstappen in the standings even if the competing driver does all he can to keep up with the Dutchman.
The answer to that is: the Mexican Grand Prix. That race is round 20 of 24.
Both of these calculations of course depend on Verstappen getting the maximum result every time and his competitors behaving in a certain way too. With every race, these calculations change.
Additional: when can Red Bull secure the constructor’s championship?
The driver’s championship is of course not the only championship in Formula 1. Red Bull is also looking to extend their hold on the constructor’s trophy. So let’s also calculate when they can secure that title.
Method 1 tells us that the earliest Red Bull can possibly secure the title is the Sprintrace at Austin, two rounds later than Verstappen could land his drivers title. However, that does assume that Sergio Perez pulls his weight as the second Red Bull driver. That hasn't really been the case in recent weekends.
Method 2 tells us that Red Bull will be able to secure the title at the Mexican Grand Prix, same as Max Verstappen. If Ferrari puts up a consistent challenge but Red Bull maximizes their points every weekend, they’ll be safe after Sergio Perez's homerace. Interestingly, that's only one race weekend later than Austin, so both methods are getting very close in their calculations.