At the start of this season, it seemed clear that Ferrari would be Red Bull’s closest competitor. Three of the first four races saw only those two teams on the podium, and the fourth of those races was actually won by Ferrari after Max Verstappen encountered problems with his brakes.
However, in the fifth race, McLaren suddenly woke up. Lando Norris stood on the podium in China, won the race in Miami and gave Verstappen a serious fight for the win in Imola. McLaren and Ferrari were evenly matched in Monaco while Verstappen couldn’t get close due to the nature of that track. And with Sergio Perez starting to lag behind, it looked like we were finally going to get a proper challenge for Red Bull and Verstappen out of those two teams. Sainz, Leclerc and Norris all had claimed a race win this season and all made life difficult for Verstappen at one point or another.
But then something strange happened in Canada. George Russell noisily put his car on pole position and even led the race for a significant portion. He ultimately finished third, right behind Norris and Verstappen, with teammate Lewis Hamilton close by in fifth. And that might be precisely what Verstappen and Red Bull need right now.
George Russell doing his now (in)famous T-pose after getting pole position in Canada.
Multiple challengers only benefits a single person
Let’s rewind the clock a little bit to the 2023 season. Sergio Perez is not doing all that great even though the car is absolutely monstrously good. In the first half of the year, Fernando Alonso is giving Checo a real run for his money, closely chasing him in the standings. In the second half of the season it’s Lando Norris who is massively outscoring Perez. And in the standings overall, Lewis Hamilton makes life quite difficult for Checo, leading the Mexican to only secure second place in the penultimate race. Meanwhile in Formula 2, Theo Pourchaire managed to snatch the title even though he only won a single race throughout the entire season.
Both Perez and Pourchaire were saved by the fact that there was no consistent challenger. Because Norris had a terrible start, Alonso faded away in the second half, and Hamilton never really did anything spectacular throughout the season, Checo managed to stay ahead of them in the standings. The championship battle in F2 that year was so inconsistent that Pourchaire never needed more than that one win, though he still had to work for it right up until the final lap of the final race.
It’s something we’ve seen happen countless times in F1 and motorsport. Sebastian Vettel won his first title in the season finale of 2010 despite never leading the championship throughout the season. Kimi Raikkonen became champion in 2007 just one point ahead of McLaren drivers Hamilton and Alonso because those two couldn’t stop trying to kill each other. Nyck de Vries became Formula E champion in 2021 even though 14 drivers still had a chance of winning the title upon entering the final round. Yes, it’s amazing to see a close competition like that, but in all those cases the final winner benefitted largely from their closest competitors taking points away from each other throughout the season.
A strong Mercedes might hand Red Bull the title
The progression of the top 5 teams so far this season.
And that’s exactly what Verstappen and Red Bull are now hoping for as well. If it was just Sainz - who had a 100% podium rate after Japan - or Leclerc who became the closest challenger to Verstappen, then that could be a manageable fight. If Norris got mixed up in there as well, it could mean that McLaren and Ferrari could seriously challenge for the constructors’ title.
But with Mercedes now seemingly back into the fight and Verstappen still clearly a step above the rest, it seems very likely that once again those three teams will fight amongst themselves and take enough points away from each other to leave Red Bull with the title.
To me, there was never any doubt about Verstappen winning the drivers’ title. But for a bit, it seemed like we could get a serious battle for the constructors’ title. Checo isn’t really keeping up as well as Red Bull needs him to and Ferrari and McLaren have had incredibly strong seasons so far. If it was just those two, then Red Bull should be scared. But a third team getting in the mix might just be the lifeline the team needs.
We’ll have to wait for the next race, in Spain, to see if Mercedes is indeed back at the front or if their pace in Canada was just a one-off. But if they are really back and capable of fighting McLaren and Ferrari, then Christian Horner should send a real thank you to Toto Wolff. Because in that case, the six victories of Verstappen this season might just be enough to keep Red Bull ahead.