In a surprising yet boring turn of events, it looks like Sergio Perez might get another year at Red Bull. We know Red Bull was looking at Alonso and Albon as well, but with them off the market their options are getting slimmer. But even then, I still think they have better options available for next year than Checo.
The Mexican Minister of Defense
Let’s first focus on the current occupant of the seat. Sergio Perez has been at Red Bull for three years now and had undeniably been a vital part of Max Verstappen’s title win in 2021. His jump to Red Bull felt incredibly deserved at the time, especially after his magnificent victory in the 2020 Bahrain Grand Prix.
But it went downhill after that. Perez figured he could take the fight to Verstappen. Turns out he couldn’t. And that sorta thing starts getting in your head. He began making rookie mistakes, which led to Red Bull putting more pressure on him and fans calling for him to be sacked. That only caused Perez to make more errors, leading to a string of terrible qualifying performances last year and some disappointing results on track. In fact, since the start of 2022, Perez has been outqualified by Logan Sargeant a total of five times.
This year, Checo has put in some decent performances, getting four podiums in the first five races. But the cracks are again starting to show. He didn’t win when Verstappen retired in Australia, even though that was exactly the moment Red Bull needed him to pull through. He got knocked out in the first part of qualifying twice in a row now, in Monaco and Imola. And since both tracks are very hard to overtake on, it was clear from the start that he wouldn’t finish on the podium in those races. The crash in Monaco last weekend may not have been his fault, but was there ever a chance of him finishing in the points?
These sorts of mistakes may not have been that crucial last year, but with McLaren and Ferrari now starting to catch up to Red Bull, it may just mean that Checo can cost them the constructors’ title. The gap between Red Bull and Ferrari got cut in half after the Monaco GP. Perez himself has now been overtaken by Sainz and Norris in the drivers standings. Is that really something Red Bull can afford? I mean, it’s not like they are lacking in possible replacements.
The Smooth Operator
The fact that Carlos Sainz might have to go to a backmarker team or maybe even leave F1 altogether just because Ferrari wanted Lewis Hamilton in that seat is still mindblowing to me. Sainz has proven himself as one of the better drivers on the grid right now and he has a great connection with Charles Leclerc. I would even say that while Leclerc is a little faster, Sainz is a more complete driver right now. Him getting booted from Ferrari is just baffling.
But equally baffling is that he seemingly isn’t getting the Red Bull seat either. As I said: Red Bull needs a second driver who can pull their weight and keep the team in contention for the title. Right now, I think Carlos Sainz is the best person to do so. He’s fast, he’s tactical, he’s good in wheel-to-wheel racing, and he does not give an inch. I honestly cannot imagine what Sainz lacks that makes Red Bull decide against him, but it’s looking increasingly likely that Sainz will not get that coveted seat.
The Honey Badger
| Qualifying gaps | |
|---|---|
| Bahrain | 0.149 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.461 |
| Australia | 0.729 |
| Japan | 0.007 |
| China Sprint | -0.602 |
| China GP | -0.303 |
| Miami Sprint | 0.013* |
| Miami GP | 0.293 |
| Imola | 0.236 |
| Monaco | 0.309 |
It is very clear that Daniel Ricciardo was brought back to AlphaTauri (now Racing Bulls) last year to put pressure on Checo. Christian Horner pretty much confirmed this in Drive to Survive, and Ricciardo has made no secret of his desire to get back to that Red Bull seat.
It seemed logical on paper… until it didn’t. Ricciardo hasn’t exactly set the world alight since his return to the Red Bull family. He only scored points twice since getting that seat: the Mexican Grand Prix last year and the China sprintrace this year. His racepace isn’t great, his qualifying pace is worse. The only time he did better than his teammate was in China. To me that makes it clear he isn’t going to Red Bull any time soon. In fact, I think his teammate deserves it a lot more.
All gaps are advantage Tsunoda, except for those in the China weekend.
*Tsunoda was faster than Ricciardo during Q1, however due to an error he couldn't set a time in Q2 and ultimately got outqualified by Ricciardo.
The...... Yuki Tsunoda
I personally think Yuki Tsunoda is one of the most underrated drivers on the grid right now. In many people’s minds he is still that angry child from 2021 that liked to curse almost as much as he liked to crash. But he has grown and evolved since then. Yes, that 2021 season wasn’t great for him (though he was a lot of fun to watch) but he has actually kept up with or outperformed every teammate he has had. Him and Gasly were pretty much tied in 2022, he massively outperformed Nyck de Vries in 2023 despite the Red Bull hierarchy pushing De Vries as their new golden boy, and he is currently still absolutely dunking on Ricciardo. While Ricciardo only scored points twice in their time together, Yuki did so in eleven different events. The only teammate he seriously lost out to was Liam Lawson, though I don’t count that one because Yuki DNF’d in two out of the five races due to no fault of his own.
And yet, despite all of that, it has never seemed like Yuki is actually being seriously considered for the Red Bull seat by Helmut Marko or Christian Horner. His name rarely comes up in rumors or discussions, and there generally doesn’t seem to be any plan for him. In fact, I wouldn’t even be surprised if they kick him out next year to make room for Lawson.
And I have to ask: why? Why wouldn’t he be considered for Red Bull? He made Ricciardo and De Vries look like amateurs and has personally been carrying his team for two seasons in a row now. He’s outperforming more experienced rivals like Nico Hulkenberg and Valtteri Bottas. Hell, he’s even ahead of Lance Stroll right now in the standings. He might not be on the level of Sainz or Norris yet, but he’s definitely ahead of Perez and Ricciardo in my book. He deserves to be in contention for that seat.
| Average qualifying position 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Carlos Sainz | 4 |
| Sergio Perez | 5,75 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 10,25 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 13,50 |
| Max Verstappen (for comparison) | 1,63 |
| Average finishing position 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Carlos Sainz | 3,57 |
| Sergio Perez | 3,71 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 10,14 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 13,50 |
| Max Verstappen (for comparison) | 1,86 |
Both stats are excluding the sprintraces of this year.
The Absurdity
I hate to say it, because I really do like the guy, but I don’t think there’s any good reason to keep Checo on. Ricciardo is definitely not the driver he used to be anymore either. To me, Sainz and Tsunoda are the best options for that Red Bull seat in 2025.
The rumor is that Checo will get a contract extension for one more year, and that’s the part I really don’t get. A one year extension means that they want to keep their options open. For what? Who will be on the market in 2026 that isn’t already available to them? What are they hoping will happen in the next twelve months that they finally get their perfect replacement? Sainz is on the market now, Tsunoda has comfortably proven himself.
I can only think of two real reasons for giving Checo a one year extension. 1: They’re hoping that Ricciardo or Tsunoda can evolve a little bit more to become ready for that, or 2: they hope that someone can rise from the junior ranks. I can’t imagine it’s about other drivers currently on the grid, because the best options are either already available to Red Bull, or they’re locked in at their teams for the long term. I don’t know what Red Bull is playing at here, but I do know this: when it comes to the best candidate for that seat for next year, I wouldn’t put Checo in first place. And I wouldn’t put him in second either.