In case you missed it, there’s a big transfer coming up. Lewis Hamilton is changing teams for only the second time in his career. 2024 will be his last year with Mercedes. In 2025, he will be donning red to replace Carlos Sainz as a driver for Ferrari. But is it actually the best choice for him? Let’s discuss.
From Hamilton’s point of view
Lewis probably has very little to lose from this deal. The man is one of the most decorated drivers in the history of Formula 1. He has proven that he can turn a wheel, there can be no doubt about that. Whether he finishes his career at Mercedes or Ferrari, he has already firmly cemented his legacy. This move won’t change any of that.
He also already knows in large part what Mercedes can offer him this year. He has been part of the development, he has driven the car in the simulator. Him leaving Mercedes now probably shows beyond a doubt: he does not believe that Mercedes can progress enough this season. Clearly he believes that Ferrari can give him a better chance of winning that coveted eighth title.
Now granted: it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. By leaving Mercedes, Hamilton steps away from a team that was custom fitted for him specifically. Ask Rosberg, Bottas or even Russell: Mercedes is Lewis Hamilton. That will not be the same in any way at Ferrari. He’ll have to adjust there and possibly contend with Leclerc for that top spot in the team. And unlike his partnership with Rosberg in 2016 or Alonso in 2007, he’ll now step into a team as an outsider while his teammate is being hailed there as ‘il Predestinato’. Hamilton isn’t just starting with a disadvantage, he’ll have to make up a 7-0 deficit with only twenty minutes left on the clock.
Because that’s also a part of this: how many years does Hamilton still have left in him? Alonso shows that you can still keep going for quite some time, but it doesn’t quite look like Hamilton has a similar drive to him. He’s currently looking more like how Raikkonen was in his final years at Ferrari and Alfa Romeo. In many ways, he even resembles Ricciardo during his time at McLaren: frustrated that he can’t make the car work, struggling to find his place on the grid, and looking for the best way forward. Is Ferrari that place? Maybe. But you’ll have to wonder how much time he has to find that rhythm.
From Ferrari’s point of view
Now, while this move makes sense on paper from Hamilton’s point of view, I do have to wonder what Ferrari were thinking when they agreed to this. Hamilton is an incredible driver, but he can also be - to put it nicely - not that easy to work with. His struggles with Alonso and Rosberg are well-documented, but you don’t even have to look that far back to see glimpses of this.
In Japan last year, Russell and Hamilton were battling each other pretty much the entire race. While Russell was on the radio trying to convince the team to repeat the DRS tactic that Sainz had expertly performed in Singapore a week earlier, Hamilton seemed to be more interested in overtaking Russell. It prompted Russell to ask a pretty poignant question: “Who do we want to fight here, each other or the others?” By the time Hamilton relented and joined in on the strategy to pull off that DRS trick, it was already too late and Sainz sailed past with laughable ease.
That same question was repeated two weeks later during the Brazilian Grand Prix, when Hamilton was doing the utmost to make life difficult for Russell. Russell had plenty to complain about Hamilton in that race, but one question sticks out: “Are we working together here, or just doing our own race?” Now contrast that with how Sainz has been behaving at Ferrari, serving almost as their unofficial head of strategy. His cooperation with Leclerc hasn’t always been flawless - the battle at Monza comes to mind - but those two worked a hell of a lot better as teammates than Russell and Hamilton.
Is that behavior unique to Hamilton? Of course not. Verstappen, Alonso, Vettel, Raikkonen, and even Leclerc and Norris have all had more than their fair share of moments where they choose their own results rather than what is best for the team. But it is something Ferrari has to keep in mind now that they’ve brought on Hamilton.
Financially speaking, there is a solid case to be made for this transfer. Obviously we don’t know yet what Hamilton will make at Ferrari, but that cost will probably be offset by his commercial value. He’ll bring a lot of valuable sponsors, and we’ve already seen Ferrari’s stock skyrocket in the hours after the announcement. The interest in this driver line-up is astronomical and will no doubt translate into a lot of money flowing to the bank account at Maranello.
But will that still be the case if Hamilton and Leclerc clash on track? If they fight among themselves in every race, if they don’t work together, if their focus on their own race puts the team result at risk? I have to imagine that if this team dynamic becomes strained, then that will put a huge dent in the financial prospects of the team and possibly even in their title chances.
What about Leclerc?
There is someone who has been largely a silent bystander in all of the discussion surrounding this whole situation, and that is Hamilton’s future teammate. Charles Leclerc is deeply embedded in Ferrari and will probably stay there his entire career if they are willing to offer him more contracts. Will he really be happy about this?
Leclerc hasn’t said anything yet publicly, and once he does, you can bet that it will be something heavily edited by the PR team. “Lewis is an incredible driver, I look forward to our partnership, this will greatly benefit the team”, something along those lines. But personally, as an outsider, I have to imagine that this comes as a disappointment to him.
Leclerc and Sainz got along great. They are both very friendly and likable guys and their personalities clicked incredibly well. Leclerc clearly got along a lot better with Sainz than with Vettel for example. That translated into on-track results. While their respective fanbases were ready to tear each other to pieces, Leclerc and Sainz did some great teamwork on track. The lack of a one-two dynamic meant that both not only were given a chance to shine from the team, but also both allowed the other to shine.
But I just can’t see that same thing happen with Hamilton by his side. I don’t think it will get toxic, but that relationship will probably be a lot colder than the one with Sainz. And we will surely see traces of that spill over onto the track. Just like how Vettel and Leclerc weren’t exactly playing the team game on track, I can’t see Hamilton and Leclerc giving each other the room to take center stage if the moment calls for it.